November 4, Kathmandu. Nepali Congress General Minister Gagan Thapa is extra prone to win from Kathmandu-4. According to the survey carried out by Online Khabar among the many voters, Gagan Thapa is extra forward than Dr. Rajan Bhattarai of CPN-UML.
Among the members within the survey, 39.2 % of the voters mentioned that they voted for Thapa, the candidate from the ruling coalition. He mentioned that solely 15.7 % voted for UML candidate Bhattarai.
19.6 % didn’t need to reveal who they voted for. Even if all these votes go to Rajan, Gagan will win. Because including the variety of those that mentioned they voted for Bhattarai and didn’t need to reveal it solely reaches 35.3 %.
During the survey, 18.8 % mentioned they voted for different candidates. Among them, 5.9 % mentioned they voted for RPP. Former AID of Armed Police Force Thakur Mohan Shrestha is a candidate from RPP on this space.
This constituency contains wards no. 1, 7, 8 and 30 of Kathmandu Metropolitan City, wards no. 3 to 7 of Budhanilkanth Municipality. Gagan Thapa will win a ‘hat-trick’ when the outcomes of the survey to symbolize these areas are confirmed. Thapa, who grew to become a member of Parliament from the proportional illustration in 2064, gained the elections of 2070 and 2074.
This time, 77 % of the votes that Thapa will get are conventional Congress voters. They have mentioned that they voted for the Congress within the earlier election as properly. Apart from this, plainly he may even get the votes of UML this time.
11 % who voted for UML within the earlier election mentioned they voted for Gagan this time. Besides, 3 % of RPP voters, 2 % of Maoist middle and 1 % of Viveksheel frequent social gathering background voted for Gagan. While his rival UML candidate Rajan has been capable of save solely 48 % of the votes of those that gave UML earlier. The remainder of the voters mentioned that they didn’t vote for Rajan this time.
Four explanation why Gagan gained the vote
According to the arguments made by the voters through the survey, there are 4 explanation why Gagan Thapa bought extra votes.
The first motive is that Ravi Lamichhane’s National Independent Party isn’t a candidate. Gagan has taken benefit of not having the bell image on the sector greater than Rajan. Arun Shrestha filed his candidacy on October 23 after taking the bell image from Kathmandu-4, however Shrestha withdrew his candidacy on October 26 saying that he was not prepared.
Arun made the argument that Gagan Thapa wanted in Parliament whereas withdrawing his candidature. Many voters have mentioned that they voted for Gagan Thapa due to the identical public argument of Shrestha. If they voted for proportionality, they voted within the bell.
Since lots of those that voted for Gagan are younger, it may be assumed that they took benefit of the truth that the candidate of the bell was not there. Among those that mentioned they voted for Gagan, 44 % of the voters are in his age group i.e. under 55 years.
The second is the influence of the UML break up. In the 2074 election, Gagan Thapa gained from Kathmandu-4, whereas Kusum Kumar Karki of the then UML gained from the (2) middle of the state meeting. On 2 August 2078, when the UML break up, Karki CPN went to the Unified Socialist Party. He continues to be a candidate for the State Assembly (2).
Gagan bought the vote to make Karki a candidate for this middle in Budanilkanth municipality space. Karki, who grew to become a former village vice-chairman, chairman and member of the state meeting, has a great affect within the Budhanilkanth space. Those who voted for UML within the earlier election mentioned that they voted for Gagan this time due to Karki, generally known as ‘Kusu’.
According to a neighborhood of Budhanilkanth-10, the native leaders labored onerous to switch votes between the Congress and the United Socialist Party. As UML is powerful in Budhanilkanth, Gagan Thapa additionally prioritized this space.
The third motive why Gagan bought extra votes is the Prime Minister card. Many voters have mentioned that they voted for Gagan due to the possibility of turning into the prime minister of the nation, moderately than as a result of he did good work when he gained the parliament twice earlier than. Ever since he submitted his candidacy, he has been saying that after successful the MP, he’ll contest the election of the chief of the Congress parliamentary social gathering. Gagan had already been doing varied actions whereas selling himself because the Prime Minister.
Gagan, who labored as a mission government in 31 classes with 60 specialists, made the prime minister the principle agenda of the election marketing campaign. For that, Gagan launched a social community referred to as ‘Mission PM’ together with Facebook, tickets. After voting on Sunday, he mentioned, ‘After turning into an MP, I’ll put together for the parliamentary social gathering election from the following day, win the parliamentary social gathering election and rule the nation by sitting within the driving seat.’
Its impact is clearly seen within the election.
The fourth motive is dissatisfaction with UML. They allege that UML president KP Sharma Oli acted towards the constitution after getting nearly two-thirds majority within the 2074 elections. Some voters have argued that the social gathering itself needed to change as a result of Oli confirmed importance towards the individuals’s sentiments through the administration of the federal government.
Not an attraction, however a selection
Voters should not proud of Gagan Thapa, who has gained elections from this space twice. They complain that regardless of his function in central politics, Rajan is extra concerned within the issues of voters. There are many such complaints particularly among the many voters of Budhanilkanth Municipality
A voter who says that he’ll all the time vote for the Congress has responded that he has by no means seen Gagan Thapa in his village besides when he got here with a masks throughout Corona. In this space, not solely the UML, but in addition Rajan is trending. There can be a chance that Gagan Thapa’s votes might be much less compared to this space, which has a majority of residents from different districts.
Statistics additionally present the identical. Among those that voted for Gagan earlier, 3 % mentioned they voted for others this time. 12 % who didn’t vote for Gagan this time didn’t need to reveal who they voted for, whereas 4 % voted for RPP. One % of the voters mentioned they voted no.
Bell and RPP in proportion
On the proportional aspect, it’s seen that Rashtriya Swadantar Party will get good votes in Kathmandu-4 this time. According to the outcomes of the survey, the Congress and the RSVP will get nearly equal votes.
They mentioned that 19.6 % of the voters voted with the Congress within the just lately opened RSVP polls. It appears that RPP will get the third most votes. Among those that participated within the ballot, 17.6 % mentioned that they voted for RPP proportionally. Only after that is the UML. 14.1 % mentioned they voted for UML’s solar image.
Among others, 13.3 %, whereas the Maoist middle has mentioned that 1.6 % voted. The variety of those that don’t need to disclose is 14.1 %. Only 11.8 % of the members within the survey mentioned that they voted for the primary time. This implies that on this election, the previous voters of Kathmandu-4 have modified their votes in the direction of proportional, whereas they’ve continued the earlier outcomes in the direction of direct.
Reporting by Saindra Rai, Ravindra Ghimire, Raghunath Bajgai, Pushparaj Choulagai, Naveen Dhungana, Sumitra Luintel and Shashwat Pant
Photo: Vikas Shrestha