The day will come once we cease evaluating ourselves to how we had been earlier than the pandemic. But absolutely it won’t occur till the economic system absolutely recovers from that blow that brought about the confinement and the paralysis of many actions. Spain has not but returned to its pre-pandemic GDP stage, however different indicators have already exceeded it. This is the case of employment: final 12 months it ended with half one million extra jobs in comparison with the top of 2019. However, greater than half, 55% of all these new jobs work within the public sector.
The unhealthy information from the non-public sector within the final quarter of 2022, 102,000 jobs had been destroyed, and the upkeep of excellent tone within the public sector brought about a type of shock on this comparability with the pre-covid information.
Now there are 272,900 extra folks working for a public administration in comparison with these in 2019. There are additionally 224,000 extra employed within the non-public sector if we evaluate with the top of 2019. In whole there are 500,000 extra staff, for whom the general public sector is accountable of 55%.
Had it not been for the autumn in employment in non-public firms within the final quarter, this sector would have gained the general public on this steadiness in comparison with 2019, as will be seen on this graph. The pink line reveals the big fall that firms registered by way of employment in comparison with a public sector that not solely was not affected, however has been including new staff since 2020.
The graph above compares the info in every quarter with respect to the identical second in 2019, earlier than the covid. It is a type of model of the query that Snow White’s stepmother asks: “Mirror, mirror, inform me if I’m higher or worse than in 2019.” Below zero, clearly worse. Above, higher. An instance:
In the second quarter of 2022, the non-public sector had 403,800 higher jobs than within the second quarter of 2019. The public sector, 259,000 enchancment. Clearly within the ‘Mirror’ contest the non-public sector received. But now we have already seen that he ended up dropping the sport within the final quarter of 2022.
Does this imply that the general public sector has created extra employment than the non-public sector? Not fairly.
If we solely evaluate 2022 with 2021 -this is regular and to not evaluate with three years before-, there isn’t a dialogue:
50,700 enhance in staff within the public sector in comparison with 228,200 within the non-public sector.
If we take a look at every part that has occurred because the collapse brought on by the covid in March 2020, additionally:
Companies have elevated employment by 1.5 million staff since then and the general public sector by 300,000. What occurs is that a lot of the advance in privateness was pure restoration of what was misplaced.
What conclusions will be drawn? The information appears to point that this enhance in employment in public administrations that began with the pandemic appears structural as a result of there may be nothing, for the second, that factors to a return to pre-covid ranges. We are dealing with historic figures: 3,526,000 staff within the public sphere. In truth, its weight within the whole has gone from 16% of all employment to 17%. We may even see some stabilization within the subsequent few quarters.
As for the non-public sector, after an excellent first a part of 2022, the slowdown within the second half has prevailed — logical however with every part that was taking place. The fourth quarter was not good in any respect, in reality it was the worst since 2014 for the non-public sector and we must wait and see with what tone the labor market begins in 2023.
The pandemic is totally overcome by way of employment, with a larger weight of everlasting staff in comparison with short-term ones after the modifications launched by the labor reform. Now all that continues to be is for GDP to exceed it and for that, in line with forecasts, we must wait one other 12 months.