November 4, Kathmandu. There is a powerful risk that UML Senior Vice President Ishwar Pokharel can be defeated in Kathmandu-5. In a survey performed by Online Khabar among the many voters who got here out of the polling station, there are indications that Pokharel, who was elected earlier, can be defeated.
Out of 233 respondents, 66 (28.4 %) voted for Congress candidate Pradeep Paudel and solely 45 (19.4) % voted for UML candidate Pokharel.
Similarly, 34 folks (14.7 %) mentioned they voted for Ghanti (National Independent Party candidate Pranay Shamsher Rana) whereas 6.5 % mentioned they voted for RPP candidate Ram Prasad Upreti. 11.6 % voted for candidates apart from these and 45 (19.4 %) respondents didn’t wish to reveal the place they voted.
Even whether it is estimated that half of the respondents who wish to stay silent voted for UML candidate Pokharel, it appears that evidently there can be a fierce competitors between him and Congress candidate Pradeep Paudel. Even so, UML candidate Pokharel shouldn’t be secure.
Assuming that half of the undisclosed votes went to UML and among the relaxation went to Congress candidate Paudel, Paudel is secure. If the unexpressed votes are distributed equally, the Congress candidate Poudel will profit even when it is just marginally and he can be on the best way to be elected.
UML’s votes have been divided greater than Congress’s
We tried to search out out the background of the voters who needed to stay silent. For that, we requested them, ‘Who did you vote for earlier than?’ Out of those that didn’t wish to reveal the place they voted, 20 % of voters mentioned that they had voted for UML prior to now, whereas about 10 % mentioned that they had voted for Congress. The opinion of those that stay silent appears to be divided.
40.3 % of the participants within the survey had voted for the UML candidate within the earlier election. We have requested the place they voted now. Among those that voted for UML within the earlier election, 17 % have now voted for the Congress candidate, whereas the National Independent Party candidate Dr. Pranay Shamsher Rana appears to have misplaced his vote. Voters who voted for UML prior to now and nonetheless vote for UML are solely 40 %, the remaining votes are distributed amongst different events.
We have additionally seen how the voters who voted for the Congress prior to now have carried out in the present day. 5 % of the voters who voted for the Congress yesterday have now voted for the UML, whereas 14 % of the votes have gone to Pranay Shamsher Rana, the candidate of the National Independent Party. Another 5 % of votes are distributed amongst numerous events. 63 % of the voters who voted for the Congress within the earlier election are nonetheless voting for a similar.
Overall, the votes expressed up to now, the background of voters who wish to stay silent, Congress candidate Pradeep Paudel appears to be forward of UML candidate Ishwar Pokharel.
According to the statistics of how the voters are represented now, the voters who voted for the UML earlier are scattered, whereas the voters who voted for the Congress are comparatively within the Congress. Because of this, UML candidate Pokharel appears troublesome to get elected, whereas Congress candidate Paudel is in a straightforward state of affairs.
Ring in proportional
Voters of Kathmandu-5 have proportionally expressed their vote on the election image bell of Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RASWPA). Among the contributors within the survey, 21 % voted for the National Independent Party, 19.7 % for the RPP, 16.3 % for the Nepali Congress, and 15 % for the CPN MLE. 2.1 % mentioned they gave it to the Maoists, whereas 15.5 % didn’t wish to reveal the place they expressed their vote.
Corruption management: first precedence
Most of the contributors within the survey mentioned that the MPs who can be elected now ought to prioritize ‘corruption management’. 37.8 % mentioned that the difficulty of corruption management must be the following main agenda. Improvements in schooling and well being (24.5 %) are the second precedence of the voters. Rule of legislation, financial growth and peace and safety are the following priorities.
Survey methodology
Online Khabar performed an exit ballot in three forms of locations in Kathmandu 5: dense settlements within the interior metropolis, settlements on the outskirts of town and rural areas. The survey we performed with 270 voters, 90-90 of them returned after voting in cubicles of these three forms of areas, confirmed this determine.
Online Khabar has performed this ‘exit ballot’ in 4 constituencies out of 165 constituencies within the House of Representatives. We have chosen the constituencies primarily based on the earlier election outcomes.
Since the variety of voters in every of the chosen constituencies ranged from lower than 70,000 to greater than 124,000, the variety of ‘pattern’ that got here out by retaining a 5% ‘error margin’ within the 90% ‘confidence interval’ of that quantity got here to 270. Which is the ‘pattern’ variety of this ballot.
Since there can be many cubicles within the constituencies however there’s a lack of assets to achieve all of the cubicles, 3 cubicles have been chosen per constituency and 90 folks have been requested for the questionnaire. To make the survey consultant, questions have been requested to the voters who got here to vote within the morning, afternoon and late. After each 11 new voters coming to the polling station after casting their vote, a query was requested.
In addition to the exit ballot survey, we circulated political correspondents together with our editorial crew in the identical constituencies, which made it even simpler to know the temper of most of the people.
The knowledge collected and processed by the net information crew was studied and analyzed by the info crew of Global Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies (GIIS) students.
Reporting by Krishna Gyawali, Dipesh Shahi, Ramkumar DC, Achyut Puri, Vijay Parajuli, Nasana Bajracharya, Nunuta Rai
Photo: Chandra Bahadur Ale/Online News