He has in contrast the issue of guessing election outcomes one month upfront with climate forecasts. The director of the Center for Sociological Research assures that it’s a “useless effort” to forecast election outcomes “one month forward” The CIS pre-election survey provided very completely different from those that left the polls on 28 M
The president of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), José Félix Tezanos, has expressed at present that the establishment he presides over “shouldn’t be a corporation of fortune tellers.” He has additionally assured that it’s a “useless effort” to foretell electoral outcomes “inside a month,” stating that sociology shouldn’t be “a science of divination.”
This is how the top of the CIS expressed himself throughout his speech on the colloquium ‘Women in Sociology’, held this Monday on the Madrid Book Fair, the place he in contrast his work with that carried out by meteorologists.
“As quickly as I run right into a meteorologist (…) I’m going to ask him to inform me what the climate goes to be like in a month and a half. And not normally, however at ten within the morning, at two within the late and at 5 within the afternoon, in Madrid, in Seville, in Santander and in varied locations”, Tezanos joked, stressing that meteorology -unlike sociology- not less than has “satellites, highly effective computer systems and established fashions “.
The CIS “attracts traits” not outcomes
Thus, he has defended that what the CIS tries to hint “are the electoral traits” and that this work represents “lower than 15 p.c of the duty” of the establishment it directs, citing barometers on the wants of the inhabitants, fiscal surveys, or on how fiscal insurance policies contribute to society.
Tezanos’s statements come after the CIS pre-election survey registered a notably completely different outcome for the municipal elections from those lastly scrutinized on May 28, because it overestimated the votes for the PSOE and the Unidas Podemos house, whereas calculating that PP and Vox would have fewer votes than they’ve lastly garnered.
Specifically, the CIS pre-election survey, carried out in April, gave the PSOE because the winner of the municipal elections with between 31 and 32.3 p.c, forward of the PP, which they estimated between 26.7 and 27.9. p.c.
The flash ballot carried out in May adjusted these knowledge and minimize the socialist benefit to 2.3 factors, giving 30.2 p.c to the PSOE and 27.9 p.c to the PP. The ultimate depend of the elections leaves related percentages, however backwards, because it was the PP who received the municipal elections with 31.5% in comparison with 28.11% for the PSOE.
Another distinction between the CIS polls and the electoral outcomes happens within the case of Podemos, Izquierda Unida and their alliances. The public heart gave it between 6.6 and 9.2% in its first ballot and as much as 8% in the latest flash ballot, however including the completely different alliances within the elections on Sunday, the members of Unidas Podemos have stayed by 3%, roughly. On the opposite hand, the CIS has adjusted the forecast with Vox, since in its newest examine it predicted 8% and on the polls it has added 7.18%.
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